Let me recommend a new book, Insecurity Politics, by Lorenza Atonucci, a professor of sociology. Her book argues, in short, that the rise of both left and right forms of anti-system populism in Europe and North America is best explained by the widespread “insecurity” in these countries.
In her words, “in this book I advance two arguments: first, that socioeconomic insecurity has steadily increased in Europe, albeit presenting itself in different ways across countries and security regimes; and, second, that this increase has created the basis for support for populism.” (3). While her focus is on Europe, similar claims could be made regarding the United States.
“Populist parties have offered new political scripts that restore and underscore the importance of the main security providers (the family, the state, and the market) in sustaining socioeconomic stability.” (8). However, “populist parties’ agenda are not simply oppositional. These parties also plan to restore security through the two actors that have been absorbing the rise in market-based insecurity: the state and the family.” (11).
What does this mean? Well, it means first that when people feel insecure and the status quo has lost its legitimacy, citizens turn to anti-system politics (the title of Jonathan Hopkin’s book, also well-worth reading). Second, they seek parties that speak to that felt insecurity—right populist parties promise to strengthen the family and close the borders, making life more secure, while left populist parties promise to build a twenty-first century version of democratic socialism that will powerfully tame (or completely overcome) the insecurity created by neoliberalism.
As Antonucci recognizes, this is, more or less, an economic explanation for the current crisis. It informs the ongoing critique of neoliberalism offered by the left. But, many liberals will say, isn’t race, or cultural resentment, or something else really responsible for the breakdown of the neoliberal order? There are plenty of studies one can point to if they want to argue that the current breakdown of the neoliberal order is not economic in nature.
Atonucci addresses this point as well. Attempts to dismiss economic explanations for the rise of anti-system politics often look at simple macro snapshots—the unemployment rate isn’t especially low in areas voting for populists, or those voting for populists aren’t the very poorest citizens, so economics can’t be the explanation, right?
This attempt to write off the economic explanation, however, is shallow and unsatisfactory. There is no one-to-one cause and effect where person A becomes unemployed and then votes for an outsider populist. Or person B is in the poorest one percent and therefore supports anti-system parties. The economic factors are more complex and diffuse than this but no less real.
Consider that first of all, the very worst off economically are unlikely to engage in any political activity, especially in as stratified a society as the United States. As Antonucci stresses, “furthermore, insecurity emerges not simply from a reduction in people’s standard of living but from a loss of what makes lives secure in a certain cultural context, which in Europe entails stable work conditions and relatively safe financial lives for the majority of citizens.” (36).
When you have decades of insecurity-driven neoliberalism undermining worker power, job security, and wages, followed by the biggest global economic meltdown in nearly a century, what follows is a generalized loss of legitimacy. Anti-system political ideas, discourses, actors, and parties arise and take the form of outsider populists seeking office. The generalized loss of legitimacy on the part of the status quo, nearly universally felt, doesn’t lend itself to the simple tests that the more shallow ends of social science tend to rely on.
Returning to Antonucci, she emphasizes “the fact that working conditions in European labor markets are now vastly different from what they were a few decades ago.” (48). She devotes considerable space delving into how things have changed. In sum, workers generally have less autonomy, more pressure in terms of speed and production, and the widespread fear they can’t get a similarly good job elsewhere. In the words of Barbara Ehrenreich, there is a broadly felt “fear of falling.”
There are many good reasons for this. “The level of generosity of social insurance policies for individuals decreased in most countries between 1980 and 2018…” (74) Then consider that “the declining compensatory effects of the welfare state since the 1980s accelerated as a result of the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent welfare-state responses…” (75). It’s hard to get a good job—if you have one, you fear it will be difficult to get another one, and welfare policies don’t seem adequate to fill in the gaps.
“Research conducted in the United States has indicated that perceived immigrant job threat tends to increase in settings with economic stagnation, where labor unions are weaker and there is a rise of work insecurity resulting from corporate restructuring and low wages.” (93). This characterizes both North America and Europe in recent decades, especially post-recession. No surprise support for such perspectives has surged.
Turning to Brexit: “Instead of being someone who had been permanently left out of society, the Leave voter appeared to be an individual with a worsening social position who was increasingly struggling—and hence a member of the intermediate middle class and the wide group of people who experience insecurity.” (117)
This confirms Antonucci’s broader finding—it is not necessarily the worst off but the squeezed middle, those who are declining, who feed support for populism. This is commonly felt and glaringly obvious but it is also diffuse. The legitimacy crisis doesn’t lend itself to easy statistical analysis. But Antonucci’s perceptive observation jibes with research indicating support for Trump has been especially strong in areas hit by the consequences of global trade.
What is true for Europe is true for North America as well. This helps explain why populism, and anti-system politics more broadly, isn’t going away anytime soon. The legitimacy crisis is real and arguably intensifying. “Since 2020 there has been an acceleration in the pervasiveness of insecurity within European societies, fueled by Covid-19 and the cost-of-living crisis.” (132). The same could be said for the US.
“This suggests that the seeds of populist support are to be found not in the growth of unemployment or the lack of a stable job per se, but in voters’ everyday experiences of instability in relation to their finances and work conditions.” (136).
Later in the book (145) Antonucci lists three ways insecurity is changing politics.
- It is about micro things like work quality, security of work, day-to-day costs, not macro things like unemployment rate or GDP growth
- Insecurity is a broad source of discontent, not limited to the most precarious or poorest
- It leads to new class coalitions and thus new political coalitions
The “current populist wave” features people “bonded together by a perception that their life conditions have declined.” (152). Indeed, “insecurity is the material condition that bonds people together in opposition to the secure elite.” (153). I haven’t done too much analysis here; mostly quoting some important passages to illustrate the key claims of Antonucci’s book. They are compelling. Check out this book!
In addition, I’ve mentioned above Jonathan Hopkin’s Anti-System Politics, which I can’t recommend enough. Jacob Hacker’s earlier The Great Risk Shift is also informative, since it addresses this increase in insecurity.